Historical Performance of WYNN After Earnings

Looking forward to WYNN’s earnings release on 7/27/17, I decided to take a look at how the company’s stock price has reacted to past earnings announcements.

The methodology used is pretty simple. I calculated the price performance of WYNN stock from the close of trading the day prior to the earnings announcement to the close the day after the earnings announcement.

As an example, last quarter WYNN reported on 4/25/17. The price performance of +8.3% is the performance from the close on 4/24/17 through the close on 4/26/17.  The stocks performance following earnings releases are shown for the last 12 quarters in the table below.


WYNN Stock Performance After Earnings

Report DateEPS Beat/MissPrice Performance
4/25/1767.6%8.3%
1/26/17-25.4%6.9%
11/2/16-5.1%-10.9%
7/28/1610.3%-4.2%
5/5/1628.9%0.0%
2/11/1639.2%18.9%
10/15/1514.7%0.7%
7/29/15-23.7%6.2%
4/26/15-48.5%-1.0%
2/3/15-16.7%-2.4%
10/28/147.1%1.2%
7/29/141.4%3.6%

The first column shows the date of the earnings release.  The second column shows the percentage by which the announced EPS beat or missed the consensus sell-side estimates.  The third column shows the price performance from the close one day before the earnings release date to the close one day after.

In the last 12 quarters, WYNN beat the consensus EPS estimate six times.  Of those six quarters with EPS beats, the stock had positive price performance four times, was flat one time and was negative two times.  Of the six quarters with EPS misses, the price performance was positive three times and negative three times.

As we all know, stocks trade on much more that EPS beats or misses nowadays, but this analysis can give you a good feel for how the stock price reacts to during earning announcments.


A Look at WYNN Key Stats Ahead of Earnings

With WYNN scheduled to report earnings on July 27, 2017 I thought it would make sense to take a look at some of the company’s key stats ahead of the earnings announcement.  Like most companies, WYNN has several key stats that investors look at to determine the health, growth prospects and management of the company.  Here, we’ll look at a handful of these key stats: total casino revenues, total hotel revenues and several hotel stats.

WYNN management breaks down reported revenue into two main categories: revenue from casino operations and revenue from hotel operations.  The company further breaks each of these down into three operating units: Macau, Wynn Palace and the Las Vegas Operations, which includes Wynn Resort and Encore.

Total Casino Revenue

WYNN’s last reported quarter (the quarter ending 3/31/17) showed a nice bounce in casino revenue for the company’s Macau operations.  Total revenue increased to $554.9M from the previous quarter, but this was down 2.9% from the same quarter in 2016.  The newly opened Wynn Palace saw total revenues for the 3/31/17 quarter come in at $429.9M.  Wynn Palace only opened in the 9/30/16 quarter, so year-over-year comparisons are not available.  Las Vegas Operations saw total casino revenue of $166.3M, about flat from the previous quarter, and up 3.3% from the same quarter in 2016.


The following chart shows the total casino revenue for WYNN’s three revenue segments from the 3/31/14 quarter through the 3/31/17 quarter.  As you can see, the Macau segment is fighting for a comeback from its steep decline during the last several years.  The Las Vegas segment is about on par to its historical revenue numbers.  And the Wynn Palace segment is just starting to take off after opening in late 2016.

Total Room Revenue

Like total casino revenue, WYNN reports total room revenue in three segments.  The Wynn Macau segment reported total room revenue of $25.5M in the 3/31/17 quarter.  This was near flat to the previous quarter, but it was a 16.1% decrease from the same quarter in 2016.  Wynn Palace brought in $39.7M in room revenue in the 3/31/17 quarter, down slightly from the previous month.  Again, Wynn Palace was not open during the 3/31/16 quarter, so year-over-year comparisons are not available.  Las Vegas Operations was the shining star.  This segment rung up $114.9M in room revenue, up nicely from the $105.7M in the previous quarter and up a solid 9.3% from the same quarter a year earlier.

Revenue Split

For the entire company, which includes Macau, Wynn Palace and the Las Vegas Operations, WYNN provides revenue split between Casino, Rooms, Food and Beverage and Entertainment Retail and Other.  The percentage of total revenue for the 3/31/17 quarter breaks down as follows:


Casino Revenue as a Percent of Total Revenue: 72.5%

Rooms Revenue as a Percent of Total Revenue: 11.4%

Food and Beverage Revenue as a Percent of Total Revenue: 9.6%

Entertainment, Retail and Other Revenue as a Percent of Total Revenue: 6.5%

Hotel Stats

The Wynn Macau revenue segment consistently has room occupancy in the mid-90% range.  Over the last four reported quarters, average occupancy was 94.7%.  While the average daily rate, or ADR, has declined in Macau over the past several years, the average of the last four quarters was $280.  Likewise, the revenue per available room, or REVPAR, has decreased in Macau from the low $300’s to $264 on average during the last four reported quarters.

At Wynn Palace, the 3/31/17 quarter showed room occupancy of 95.6%, up from the previous two quarters during the hotel’s opening phase.  ADR was $258 last quarter while REVPAR was $246.

The Las Vegas Operations have fairly consistent hotel occupancy in the mid to upper 80% range, with the average of the last four quarters coming in at 86.2%.  The ADR for the Las Vegas Operations have been ticking up as of late with the four quarter average coming in at $301.  REVPAR, too, has been ticking up, coming in with a four quarter average, as of 3/31/17, or $259.

Historically, the Macau operations have been the driving force of the stock price for WYNN, especially when earnings are reported.  While this is important, a healthy Las Vegas Operations segment is important also, as is the newly emerging Wynn Palace segment.

We’re looking forward to see how these key statistics flesh out during the 7/27/17 earnings release!