MGM Resorts Historical Post-Earnings Price Performance

How will MGM’s stock price react to its earnings report on July 27?  We don’t know, but we can gleam some insight by looking at how the stock reacted historically to past earnings announcments.

To do this we looked at the price performance of MGM from the close the day before the announcement date to the close one day after for the last twelve quarters.

Report DateEPS Beat/MissPrice Performance
4/27/1746.2%3.1%
2/16/17-35.3%-10.1%
11/7/16625.0%6.0%
8/4/1623.8%2.8%
5/5/1623.1%2.5%
2/18/16-114.3%-10.0%
10/29/15400.0%6.6%
8/4/1554.6%12.6%
2/17/15-83.3%3.9%
10/30/14-133.3%1.6%
8/5/1475.0%-5.0%
4/29/14110.0%9.6%

 



Over the last twelve reported quarters, MGM reported EPS that beat the Wall Street consensus EPS estimates nine times.  During these nine quarters that MGM beat estimates, its stock price increased every single time.  In fact, the average increase during these nine quarters was 5.4%.  The largest post-earnings increase was 12.6% for the quarter reported on 8/4/2015.  The smallest price increase was 1.6% after the quarter reported on 10/30/2014.

For the three quarters where MGM missed EPS estimates the stock fell every time.  Not only did the stock fall each of these three quarters, it fell big: the average of these three quarters was an 8.4% decline with the largest post-earnings price decline of 10.1% after the 2/16/2017 earnings announcement.



While stocks move for many reasons after earnings are released other than the reported EPS, such as reported revenue or updates on key metrics or guidance, the price action of MGM has recently been heavily correlated to the EPS beat or miss.  Stay tuned for MGM’s earnings on the 27th to see if this trend continues.

 

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