Casino Win Trend a Mixed Bag for Atlantic City Casinos

The Short Take:

  • We studied the monthly total casino wins at each Atlantic City casino for close to five years
  • Four casinos have an upward trend over this time period, increasing their casino wins steadily
  • Three casinos have a downward trend with their casino wins progressively falling
  • Watching these trends is important as new competition takes hold in the Atlantic City market

In yesterday’s article we looked at the total September casino win for each Atlantic City casino.  We saw that while the city-wide win rate has increased overall, most casinos that have been around for a while were really hurt with the opening of the Hard Rock and the Ocean Resort earlier this year.

This made us wonder what the overall long-term trend is for each casino based on the amount they are winning each month on the casino floor.  So, we looked at the monthly casino win statistics over nearly five years and it turns out the results are a mixed bag.

Four casinos have an upward trend while three of the casinos’ trends are downward.  And all three casinos that have a negative casino win trend have one thing in common.  Hint: they are all owned by the same company, but more to come on that in a bit.

A quick note before we get into the details.  We only looked at data for the casinos that are currently in operation, so we ignored shuttered casinos like the Taj Mahal, Trump Plaza, Revel and the Atlantic Club. We also ignored the two newcomers on the Boardwalk – the Hard Rock and the Ocean Club – because they just opened recently and do not have long-term historical data available.

Now, onto the results. First the winners.  As the chart below shows, four casinos have an upward trend in total casino wins over the period studied – January 2014 through September 2018.  For each casino, the chart plots the monthly total casino wins and overlays a trend line, which is the black line slopping upward in each casino’s quadrant.  For the statistics nerds out there, this is a linear trend line.

The Borgata, Tropicana, Golden Nugget and Resorts all have a positive casino win trend over the nearly five years of data studied.  While you see monthly spikes and valleys for each casino (due largely to seasonality or a particularly lucky or unlucky month on the casino floor), the overall trend for each of these AC casinos is upward.

So, who are the losers? It turns out that the losers are the three Atlantic City casinos that are owned by Caesars Entertainment (CZR). Harrah’s, Caesars and Bally’s all have negative slopping trend lines over the nearly five-year period studied. Just by looking at the monthly plot bars, you can visually see that overall casino win rates are dropping for these three CZR properties.

What does this analysis tell us about the future of the Atlantic City casinos?  One answer may be that the four casinos that have been increasing their casino wins long-term are in a stronger position to battle the two newcomers in the market.  Over the years they have been building their brand and customer loyalty which resulted in more action in their casinos.

After all, if the casinos that have been drifting lower and lower even before more competition hit them in the face will be confronting a real battle in the coming months and years.

We’ll be staying on top of all of the Atlantic City casino action here at Ante Research.  Make sure to bookmark us and check back soon!

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